09 September 2019, Amsterdam – The INREV Funds Termination Study 2019 reveals that 50 European closed end non-listed real estate funds are scheduled to terminate by 2021, releasing a potential €13.2 billion of assets back into the market. By 2028, 97 funds are expected to have terminated, representing €23 billion of net asset value (NAV).
Most terminations are likely to take place in 2020, accounting for a total of 23 funds. Those funds terminating in 2021 show the strongest 12-year annualised performance with average returns of 5.6%. They are also the largest funds terminating over the coming three-year horizon, each with an average NAV of €578 million, representing a total of €5.6 billion.
Most of the funds with a single country strategy terminating between 2019 and 2021 (50% of the total), are focused on the UK. The timing coincides with, but isn’t necessarily driven by, Brexit. Over the same period, single sector-focused funds could bring €9.7 billion of assets back into the market. Almost 41% of these vehicles are retail funds, collectively accounting for €4.4 billion.
Core funds dominate terminations between 2019 and 2021, representing 44.0% of the total for this period, while 42.0% are value added and 14.0% are opportunity.
Of the funds expected to terminate in the next three years, around half have vintages dating back to between 2010 and 2013 and 25% pre-date 2008. This indicates that most were launched at the beginning of the recovery from the financial crisis and very few during the crisis. Nearly 90% of the cohort have leverage levels below 60%.
Combining core and value added styles, funds terminating between 2019 and 2021 overwhelmingly selected either liquidation or extension as their preferred option.
Similarly, almost all funds (93.8%) cited the terms set out in their original fund documentation as the main reason for terminating, followed by current market circumstances (81.3%).
Lonneke Löwik, INREV’s CEO, commented: ‘These data add colour to the general picture that we have come to recognise. There are no shocks, but the volume of retail assets expected to be offloaded is surprising. The study results also raise an interesting general question about how managers will deal with the challenges of bringing assets to market at a time when pricing looks set to come under increasing downward pressure.’
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Notes to Editors
About the Funds Termination Study 2019
The INREV Funds Termination Study examines preferred termination options of European closed end non-listed real estate funds, including continuation strategies and the impact of current market conditions on termination decisions.
This year’s study includes 243 closed end vehicles managed by 117 managers from the INREV Vehicles Universe. Collectively these vehicles represent a total Net Asset Value (NAV) of €47.3 billion. Of these 243 vehicles, 97 funds are due to terminate in the coming decade (2019 to 2028). This group represents total NAV of €23.0 billion.
The study was launched in 2007 and is published once a year.
INREV, the European Association for Investors in Non-Listed Real Estate Vehicles, was launched in May 2003 as a forum for investors and other participants in the growing non-listed real estate vehicles sector. The association represents and reflects an industry with a total value of €2.8 trillion and INREV members deliver €385 billion of stimulus to the real economy of Europe.
INREV has 470 members which include 84 of the largest institutional investors as well as 40 of the 50 largest real estate fund managers, plus banks and advisors across Europe and elsewhere.
The non-profit association is focused on increasing the transparency and accessibility of non-listed vehicles, promoting professionalism and best practice, and sharing knowledge. It is based in Amsterdam, the Netherlands.