Young Professionals’ Seminar 2016: presentation summaries

Tim Marshall, author and former Diplomatic Editor and Foreign Correspondent for Sky News delivered a fascinating and eye-opening presentation on geo-politics, focusing on southeast Asia, America, the Middle East and Russia.

Despite recent conflicts, this is a fantastic time to live -- we’ve had 70 years of peace in western Europe.

In Asia, Tim expects the battle between China and America to win over southeast Asia will take 50 years to play out. He believes the silk route is just as relevant now as it was 2000 years ago, and showed how it’s being rebuilt now by China -- by road through Asia and by sea through the Malacca Straight.

He also believes America is the best piece of real estate in the world. It has no neighbouring enemies, it is highly independent with very little of their GDP depending on exports (5%), and they have resources.

His takeaways? Geography and politics still matter. Mass migration is not an ‘IF’, the nation state is in its renaissance and will survive, the move to the extremes has not peaked and remember: we are still in a time of peace.

Tony Charles, Morgan Stanley Real Estate Investing, drilled down from a global economic outlook into his views on its impact on real estate. Although the global economy is expected to have slow growth over the next years, real estate is a safe haven during these periods of volatility. Negative interest rates have positive and negative impacts on real estate – they illustrate weaker economic growth which impacts rents, but take the pressure off high yields.

The good news is that the market cycle is normalising, and though many European markets seem to be peaking in their cycle, Tony believes there are still 2-3 years of investment left in this cycle

A panel discussion moderated by James Raynor followed the presentation, including leading industry panelists Michael Bruhn, PFA Real Estate, Mikkel Bülow-Lehnsby, NREP, Marieke van Kamp, NN Group, and Tony Charles. Panelists were optimistic about real estate, due to its lower risk and stable income delivery.

When asked what they would personally invest their money in, panelists mostly agreed on debt markets and residential, while Mikkel said he would invest in finding out how to build with re-used trash.

Maarten Oonk, Deloitte, explored a range of technologies currently coming down the pipe which he thinks will impact the real estate industry.

What’s the dark side? Cyber security - digitisation and cyber criminality go hand in hand.

When asked how long it takes for a company to realise it has been a victim of a cyberattack, 36% of delegates thought 30 days and 27% thought 98 days. Final answer: it now takes on average 98 days, whereas a year ago it was 270 days before a company found out that they were a victim of cybercrime.

Maarten identified three levels of innovation: core innovation (known); adjacent (known/unknown); and transformational (unknown). He urged that you can’t make a business case for unknown transformational innovations. You must make mental leaps.

The skills you need to make these leaps are question / challenging skills - don’t be efficiency-driven, and to know when to focus.

Jonathan Hannam, Taronga Group, presented live from Sydney on positioning yourself and your company to harness the potential of technology.

Jonathan sees potential in several areas of real estate, including planning & financing, design & construction, sales & development, leasing & management, value growth, and sustainability. He provides several specific examples in his presentation, and lists 85 companies in the US that are looking to disrupt residential real estate.

What’s next? Jonathan sees augmented reality, virtual reality, corporate leasing B2B, Blockchain Mortgage Exchange, robotics and driverless trucks as being big players in real estate.

Disruption is inevitable, but real estate assets can benefit from technology-driving returns. Early adopters will have a competitive advantage.

Andrea Carpenter, Consultant, lead a hands on workshop on differentiating a startup fund through technology. Delegates were formed into groups and each had to design a specialist European, full service fund – from fund management to asset/property management -- and use technology within their model as a differentiator.

Three ideas were selected and pitched to the audience and our panel of judges.

• Connected living – senior housing in urban locations close to amenities, where you can choose from a variety of locations around the world, that incorporates technologies such as germ-resistant building materials and holograms to communicate with family members
• 3-D Lego Fund – residential property with shared ownership concept, where the shell of the building is fixed but the units are 3-D printed to make them flexible for changing family situation, living conditions, housing needs and furniture tastes.

And the winner…

• Urban Hive – as parking lots will no longer be needed in the future, they will be re-purposed into entertainment centres, combining leisure, retail and logistics. The basement will be where the products are stored, the shopping area will be a completely re-invented connected shopping experience, and when products are purchased drones will automatically deliver them from the basement to your home. Upper floors will have short and longer term residential uses, and there will be no parking – self-driving cars will shuttle people to and from the hive.

Magnus Lindkvist, Trendspotter and Futurologist, delivered an entertaining and provocative presentation on vertical change – something uninvented becoming a reality. Future thinking is about the possibility of something new.

Companies are built to do the same thing every year, a little bit better than the year before. Magnus encouraged the young professional audience to think in great leaps instead. It’s not enough to think about returns and money. These are short term focuses. He has hopes for real estate, as it has a longer term horizon.

When asked if delegates wanted to create or compete, all but one said they would rather create. In our world, competition is rewarded and creation is punished – Magnus hopes the audience will persevere and innovate in the face of resistance.

Magnus had three thoughts for the audience to take away:

1. Look for secrets – to create something new, avoid trends. Look where others are not looking.
2. Experiment – change, much like a city, thrives on variety and doing things differently.
3. Be patient – recycle failures, improve them and don’t embrace a culture of shaming failure.

Nicolai Irminger Axholm, By & Havn presented Nordhavn – a waterfront re-development of a former industrial area that embeds sustainability at every level. The project embodies many innovative elements, from the structure of the company that is developing the area (publicly owned company that uses revenue from the development to finance major public transportation projects) to innovative energy solutions (including using the site as part of a four year research and development project to develop new energy solutions) to social and environmental sustainability.

Connected to the metro and train network, Nordhavn focuses on bicycle, pedestrian and boat transportation and de-emphasises car use. A ‘5-minute city’, where everything is accessible within short distances, including the centralised town centre with retail high street. Old industrial buildings are blended with new to retain the identity and history of the area, and a range of materials, building heights and facades enhance its identity.

The development not only focuses on ‘green’ spaces, but also on ‘blue’ spaces – creating new internal waterways to better connect the external waterways and allow more people to live on the water, and making space for recreational water uses and activities, such as sailing, kayaking and rowing.

Delegates arrived by boat and were given a tour of the development -- still under construction -- to experience how these principles come alive in the development.